Methodology and Sources
How every cost range on the site is built. No band rests on a single source; every install range is triangulated from at least two consumer publishers, one or more manufacturer published price ranges, and federal labour or efficiency data where applicable.
01 Primary sources
Every install cost band on the site triangulates from the sources below. Manufacturer published price ranges anchor the per-tier bands (budget, mid-range, premium). Consumer aggregators (HomeAdvisor/Angi, HomeGuide, Modernize) anchor the broad install range. Federal data (DOE SEER2 standards, ENERGY STAR ratings, BLS oes-49-9021) anchors the regulatory thresholds and labour rate.
| Source | Type | What we use it for |
|---|---|---|
| HomeAdvisor / Angi | Consumer publisher and contractor aggregator | Anchor install cost band ($5k-$8k with ducts; $10k-$15k without). Regional cost reports. |
| Angi Cost Reports | Aggregator cost-report series | Cross-check national medians and regional multipliers for HVAC install. |
| HomeGuide | Consumer pricing aggregator | Per-line-item pricing for AC condenser, air handler, refrigerant lines, electrical, ductwork. |
| Modernize Cost Guide | Consumer publisher | Secondary cross-check on install ranges and ductwork pricing. |
| Carrier residential pricing | Manufacturer published price ranges | Premium-tier installed-cost anchor ($6,000-$11,000 for 3-ton 16 SEER2 system). |
| Trane residential pricing | Manufacturer published price ranges | Premium-tier installed-cost anchor (XR/XL/XV lines for 3-ton equivalent). |
| Lennox residential pricing | Manufacturer published price ranges | Premium-tier ultra-high-efficiency anchor (Signature Collection up to 28 SEER2). |
| Goodman residential pricing | Manufacturer published price ranges | Budget-tier installed-cost anchor ($3,200-$5,500 for 3-ton 16 SEER2 system). |
| Rheem residential pricing | Manufacturer published price ranges | Mid-tier value anchor (Prestige and Classic line installed cost). |
| ENERGY STAR Central AC | Federal certification programme | Qualifying SEER2 tier thresholds, regional minimums, certified-product searchable database. |
| AHRI Directory | Industry equipment-matching directory | Matched-system AHRI Reference Number lookups (required for 25C tax credit documentation). |
| DOE Residential AC Standards | Federal regulator | Federal minimum SEER2 (14 north, 15 south, 14.5 southwest split). Source for the 2023 SEER2 transition. |
| US BLS HVAC technician wages (oes-49-9021) | Federal labour statistics | Anchor installer hourly cost ($28-$32/hr median) before contractor burden. Drives the $1,500-$3,500 install-labour range. |
| ACCA Manual J load calculations | Trade association engineering standard | Tonnage-by-square-footage defaults used in the calculator. Reference standard for any properly sized residential install. |
02 Sources by category
03 Calculation method: install cost by home size
Anchor scenario: a 2,000 sq ft single-story US home with existing ductwork in good condition, getting a like-for-like 3-ton 16 SEER2 split-system replacement. Anchor cost band: $5,000-$8,000 installed. This anchor is the median of HomeAdvisor/Angi, HomeGuide, and Modernize ranges plus Carrier / Trane / Goodman / Rheem published 3-ton 16 SEER2 installed prices.
Tonnage-by-size defaults come from ACCA Manual J standard load tables for moderate US climate zones with average envelope quality:
| Home size (sq ft) | Tonnage default | Installed cost (with existing ducts) | Installed cost (with new ductwork) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1,000-1,200 | 1.5-2 ton | $3,800-$6,000 | $8,000-$12,000 |
| 1,200-1,500 | 2-2.5 ton | $4,000-$7,000 | $8,500-$13,000 |
| 1,500-2,000 | 2.5-3 ton | $5,000-$8,000 | $10,000-$15,000 |
| 2,000-2,500 | 3-3.5 ton | $5,500-$9,000 | $11,000-$16,000 |
| 2,500-3,000 | 3.5-4 ton | $6,500-$10,500 | $12,000-$17,000 |
| 3,000-4,000+ | 4-5 ton | $8,000-$14,000 | $13,000-$20,000 |
Source triangulation: HomeAdvisor / Angi, HomeGuide, Modernize, ACCA Manual J tonnage defaults. Multi-story homes typically add 0.5 ton or one zone; older envelope quality adds 0.5-1.0 ton. Always confirm with a contractor-run Manual J before sizing.
04 Calculation method: ductwork
New ductwork cost band: $3,000-$10,000 for a 1,500-3,000 sq ft home, triangulated from HomeGuide ($3,000-$7,500 for a 1,500-2,000 sq ft home), Angi ($1,400-$5,600 for a typical home), and Modernize ($4,000-$10,000 with installation). Per-linear-foot pricing: sheet metal $35-$55 installed, flexible duct $20-$35 installed, fibreboard typically rejected on new builds due to moisture issues.
Repair vs replace decision rule: if more than 30-40% of the existing system needs repair (sealing, insulation, or partial replacement), full replacement is usually the better dollar. This rule comes from contractor surveys aggregated in HomeAdvisor / Angi and is consistent with the duct-leakage thresholds published by ENERGY STAR for the Home Performance with ENERGY STAR programme.
05 Calculation method: SEER2 tier
Federal minimum (DOE residential AC standards, effective January 2023): 14 SEER2 for north-of-line split systems, 15 SEER2 for south-of-line split systems, 14.5 SEER2 for some south-west configurations. SEER2 ratings are not directly comparable to old SEER ratings (a SEER2 14 is roughly equivalent to old SEER 15).
Per-step premium at the same brand and tonnage:
- 14 SEER2 to 16 SEER2: +$250-$500 install premium. Qualifies for the federal 25C tax credit ($600 cap). Best-value sweet spot in moderate climates; payback typically 3-5 years.
- 16 SEER2 to 18 SEER2: +$800-$1,200 install premium. Worth it in hot climates (FL, TX, AZ, southern CA) where cooling runs 5+ months.
- 18 SEER2 to 20 SEER2: +$1,500-$2,000 install premium. Payback 6-12 years in moderate climates; faster in hot climates.
- 20 SEER2 to 26-28 SEER2 (Lennox Signature, Carrier Infinity, Trane XV): +$3,000-$6,000 premium. Rarely pays back inside equipment life.
25C tax-credit threshold: 16 SEER2 north, 17 SEER2 south for split-system AC ($600 cap, 30% of equipment cost). For heat pumps, 15.2 SEER2 and 8.8 HSPF2 minimum ($2,000 cap). IRS Form 5695 documentation requires an AHRI Reference Number for the matched system; use the AHRI Directory to confirm before claiming.
06 Calculation method: regional multipliers
Regional multipliers applied to the national-baseline install cost. Anchored to BLS HVAC technician wage data (oes-49-9021) plus HomeAdvisor / Angi regional cost reports.
| Region | Multiplier | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Northeast (NY, MA, CT, NJ) | 1.15x | Higher BLS wages; older housing stock raises ductwork complexity |
| West Coast (CA, WA, OR) | 1.20x | Highest BLS wages; CA Title 24 efficiency code adds compliance cost |
| Midwest (IL, OH, MI, MN) | 1.00x (baseline) | BLS national median wages |
| Southeast (FL, GA, NC, SC) | 0.95x | High volume drives competition; lower BLS wage band |
| Southwest (TX, AZ, NM) | 0.90x | Highest install volume nationally; competitive market |
| Mountain West (CO, UT, NV) | 1.05x | Higher wages plus altitude derating for some equipment lines |
07 Calculation method: labour
Install labour band: $1,500-$3,500 for a typical 8-16 hour install. Built from BLS HVAC technician median wage ($28-$32/hr depending on year and region) plus 1.5-1.8x contractor burden (vehicle, tools, insurance, overhead, profit), yielding $75-$150/hr fully loaded. New installations with full ductwork run $3,000-$6,000 in labour (2-4 days).
Per-job hours come from contractor scheduling survey data aggregated in HomeAdvisor and HomeGuide: 4-8 hours for a like-for-like replacement, 8-16 hours for replacement with duct repairs, 16-32 hours for a full new install with ductwork.
08 In scope
- US private-residential central air installation (new and replacement)
- Ductwork addition or replacement (sheet metal, flex, partial vs full)
- SEER2 efficiency-tier choice and federal 25C tax credit math
- Brand pricing for 9 brands at the same 3-ton 16 SEER2 anchor (Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Goodman, Rheem, York, Bryant, Amana, Heil)
- Install labour anchored to BLS HVAC wage data plus contractor burden
- Permits, inspections, and realistic 1-4 day install timeline
09 Out of scope
- Commercial and industrial HVAC (rooftop units, RTUs, VRF beyond residential)
- Package units for manufactured homes (briefly referenced; not the primary cost anchor)
- Ductless mini-splits as the primary cooling solution (covered comparatively in /mini-split-vs-central-air only)
- Geothermal heat pump systems (different equipment, install scope, and incentive structure)
- Non-US residential markets (Canada, UK, EU pricing differs materially)
- Custom variable-refrigerant-flow (VRF) systems
10 Refresh cadence
Monthly first-business-week pass: every cost band, SEER2 threshold, regional multiplier, and labour anchor is re-checked against the primary sources. Out-of-cycle refresh triggers:
- DOE SEER2 minimum-standard revision
- Federal 25C or 25D tax-credit threshold revision (IRS guidance update)
- Manufacturer published price-sheet revision (Carrier/Trane/Lennox/Goodman/Rheem)
- Sister-site cross-check delta greater than 10% on the equivalent anchor scenario
Every Updated YYYY-MM-DD stamp and schema dateModified on the site reads from a single LAST_VERIFIED_DATE constant in src/lib/schema.ts. Rolling that constant forward updates every freshness surface on the site by construction. The current value is May 2026.
11 Limitations
The calculator and cost ranges describe the broad middle of the US private-residential market. They do not anticipate every quote variance. Specific drivers the calculator cannot model:
- Local labour-market tightness can push regional install labour 20-30% above the BLS-anchored band in metros like NYC, San Francisco, Boston.
- Manufacturer dealer-network exclusivity (Lennox dealer territories, Trane Comfort Specialist programmes) can constrain quote competition and inflate installed prices 10-15% beyond list ranges.
- Refrigerant-cost volatility during the R-410A phaseout and the R-32 / R-454B transition adds a price-band uncertainty that the calculator cannot anticipate.
- Sister-site cross-check timing skew: our monthly verification pass synchronises across the portfolio but does not guarantee same-day publishing of a price revision after a sister-site catches it first.
Always run a contractor-led ACCA Manual J load calculation before sizing your system. The calculator is a budgeting tool, not a sizing tool.
12 Corrections process
If a price band is materially off, a SEER2 threshold has shifted, a federal 25C credit value has changed, or a manufacturer price sheet has been revised, email [email protected] with the source link and the specific page or section. We aim for a 5-business-day correction turnaround. Corrections trigger an out-of-cycle LAST_VERIFIED_DATE update on the affected pages.